Oscars 2012: Who Will, Who Should, Who Won't

Every year before the Academy Awards speeches are tacitly composed, flowing gowns and priceless necklaces booked and no doubt small blameless animals slaughtered in the Roman style for good luck. Before the gladiators enter the ring, we at theartsdesk continue our novel take on the 2012 Oscars by allotting a category each and asked our film writers to sift through the nominations, tell you who they think will win, who they really would like to win, and who has been most egregiously overlooked by Oscar's overwhelmingly ageing white male judiciary. Will Meryl actually go home with her third statuette? Has Shame been traduced? Will best supporting actor go to yet another senior citizen?

Click through the pages and you can read Matt Wolf on the Best Film category, Demetrios Matheou on Best Director, Graham Fuller on Best Actor, Emma Simmonds on Best Actress, Jasper Rees on Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Emma Dibdin on Best Original and Adapted Screenplays, Veronica Lee on Best Animation and Tom Birchenough on Best Foreign Film. Read on and then tell us what you think.

Best Film

by Matt Wolf

Nominated: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Oscar’s premier category posed an unusual question this year: just how many films would rise to the Best Picture top? For decades, of course, the normal cut-off point has been five, the number widening out in recent years to allow for a greater selection of nominees, thereby allowing more films to feed off the PR campaign that – let’s face it – is why the Oscars exist to begin with.

The voters seem to want a movie that for the most part is mute

This year, though, a new procedure was put in place that in effect meant that no one knew in advance precisely how many films would make the grade. With pundits predicting a short-list of seven or eight, there was some surprise when Academy president Tom Sherak and Winter's Bone actress Jennifer Lawrence appeared before the world’s media last month to announce nine nominees, especially since the blockbusters that a fuller roster was meant to accommodate still didn’t get a look-in. I mean, when Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is cited and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (pictured below) is not, you know something is wrong in the state of filmdom. Either that or LA really does exist in thrall to Extremely Loud producer Scott Rudin, an ongoing force in the film world (theatre, too) whose intelligence and power are respected and feared in equal measure.

Of those films that are in contention, there seems little doubt that the night will belong to The Artist, marking yet another feather in the cap of Harvey Weinstein, who specialises in little films that end up making a big noise and going the Oscar distance (cf Shakespeare in Love).  Myself, I would vote for Moneyball, easily the smartest film of the line-up and, unexpectedly, also the most moving. (The final scene of Brad Pitt listening to his daughter’s CD says more about parent/child relations than all of The Descendants.)  I’d also grant Young Adult, We Need to Talk About Kevin, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy pride of place above almost all the films cited, and, yes, Harry Potter’s final instalment, too, which brought a variable film franchise to a resoundingly serious, beautifully judged conclusion.

But the voters have spoken, and they seem to want a movie that for the most part is mute. Maybe Uggie can return next year to host the Oscars?

• Will win: The Artist
• Should win: Moneyball
• Most lamentable omission: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2

See also: Best Director; Best Actor; Best Actress; Best Supporting Actor and Actress; Best Original/Adapted Screenplay; Best Animated Film; Best Foreign Film